Three Years of Elections in Stockton through a Domino Effect

Since no one really seems to be talking about this except in back rooms I will point the domino effect that could happen in the area that would add 2019 to election calendar for Stockton area politics. 

Board of Equalization D2

The first thing that needs to happen is that our current representative in the California State Senate Cathleen Galgiani D5 needs to run and win the Board of Equalization D2 seat being vacated by Fiona Ma who is running for State Treasurer. Galgiani has already filed and raised a large sum of money to run for this seat but it isn’t necessarily “in the bag” for her as her last State Senate race against Allan Nakanshi was. Because the BOE 2nd district encompasses the Bay Area and California Coast we can assume a Democrat will surely win but we can’t be sure that would be Galgiani (in 2014 Fiona Ma beat Republican James E. Theis 68.7%-31.3%).

Within the last few months Galgiani has been critical of proposed changes to the BOE stripping it of much of its power, something that could alienate her from fellow Democrats. Typically the Board has been comprised of 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats with the State Controller being the head. Many on the right see the changes to the BOE as being another attempt for Democrats in California to solidify their power in the State. On the other hand former State Assemblyman Rich Gordon recently dropped out of the race for BOE D2 stating he didn’t feel the board should be elected at all. He told Bloomberg news

 “At the end of the day, if you’re performing an administrative role and a quasi-judicial role yet you get there through a political process, it creates an inherent conflict,” Gordon said. “For me, it became an ethical dilemma.”

Board of San Francisco Supervisor Malia Cohen has also filed to run for the seat and at a quick glance has raised more than $200,000 this early in the race. And of course there is also a ton of other candidates who could pop up in the next few months making this a crowded field. Galgiani probably has big advantage in the race in terms of fundraising since she is a sitting Democrat State Senator but she is still lagging a bit behind Cohen with $168,000.

               

                But all things being equal let’s assume that Galgiani is successful and wins the race. This means that she would have to step down two years early from the Senate leaving a vacancy and triggering a special election to occur early in 2019.

               

Senate District 05

In this race to fill Galgiani’s seat one would assume that Susan Eggman is the heir apparent and probably is but nothing is written in stone. Eggman has already filed for SD05 for the 2020 election and she is not without company as San Joaquin County Supervisor Bob Elliot has also filed for the 2020 election. Eggman has been an outstanding representative in the Assembly and crushed her last opponents but in SD05 she is not going to be able to cruise through by any means. Of the roughly 460k voters in the district 43% are Dems, 33% Reps, and are 20% DTS.

A Republican certainly has a chance in the district for a number of reasons including the backlash from the recent Gas Tax, and the fact that off years and especially special elections tend to favor Republican turnout. This is all without mentioning that in 2012 Galgiani barely squeaked into office winning by 2,643 votes in an election that wasn’t called until close to Christmas. Wildcards in this election could be a number of other candidates entering the race like Heath Flora.

                But once more, all things being equal let’s assume that Galgiani wins, and then Eggman wins. By mid-2019 we would have yet another special election.

State Assembly District 13.

There is very little chance that Republican could win in this district but if there was chance it would be this special election. Although one must recognize that the makeup of the district is Dems 50%, Reps 25%, and DTS 21%. So since we have no shortage of qualified Democrats in the area this race would be similar to people trampling each other at Wal-Mart on Black Friday.

Of course rumors for this race include those such as Moses Zapien, Carlos Villapudua and Lange Luntano to name a few. Past candidates have included Jennet Stebbins (who seems to run for a lot of things with little to no money, and who knows with which alias) Sol Jobrack, Kevin Lincoln, and K. Jeffery Jafri. At any rate whoever wins this race would be taking office well into the start of the 2020 United States Presidential Election putting us into three years of political campaigning without a break. Of course for all this to happen Galgiani has to win first.