Since no one
really seems to be talking about this except in back rooms I will point the
domino effect that could happen in the area that would add 2019 to election
calendar for Stockton area politics.
Board of Equalization D2
The first thing
that needs to happen is that our current representative in the California State
Senate Cathleen Galgiani D5 needs to run and win the Board of Equalization D2
seat being vacated by Fiona Ma who is running for State Treasurer. Galgiani
has already filed and raised a large sum of money to run for this seat but it
isn’t necessarily “in the bag” for her as her last State Senate race against
Allan Nakanshi was. Because the BOE 2nd district encompasses the Bay Area and
California Coast we can assume a Democrat will surely win but we can’t be sure
that would be Galgiani (in 2014 Fiona Ma beat Republican James E. Theis 68.7%-31.3%).
Within the last
few months Galgiani has been critical of proposed changes to the BOE stripping
it of much of its power, something that could alienate her from fellow
Democrats. Typically the Board has been comprised of 2 Republicans and 2
Democrats with the State Controller being the head. Many on the right see the
changes to the BOE as being another attempt for Democrats in California to solidify
their power in the State. On the other hand former State Assemblyman Rich
Gordon recently dropped out of the race for BOE D2 stating he didn’t feel the
board should be elected at all. He told Bloomberg news
“At the end of the day, if you’re performing
an administrative role and a quasi-judicial role yet you get there through a
political process, it creates an inherent conflict,” Gordon said. “For me, it
became an ethical dilemma.”
Board of San
Francisco Supervisor Malia Cohen has also filed to run for the seat and at a
quick glance has raised more than $200,000 this early in the race. And of
course there is also a ton of other candidates who could pop up in the next few
months making this a crowded field. Galgiani probably has big advantage in the
race in terms of fundraising since she is a sitting Democrat State Senator but
she is still lagging a bit behind Cohen with $168,000.
But
all things being equal let’s assume that Galgiani is successful and wins the
race. This means that she would have to step down two years early from the
Senate leaving a vacancy and triggering a special election to occur early in
2019.
Senate District 05
In this race to
fill Galgiani’s seat one would assume that Susan Eggman is the heir apparent
and probably is but nothing is written in stone. Eggman has already filed for
SD05 for the 2020 election and she is not without company as San Joaquin County
Supervisor Bob Elliot has also filed for the 2020 election. Eggman has been an
outstanding representative in the Assembly and crushed her last opponents but
in SD05 she is not going to be able to cruise through by any means. Of the
roughly 460k voters in the district 43% are Dems, 33% Reps, and are 20% DTS.
A Republican
certainly has a chance in the district for a number of reasons including the
backlash from the recent Gas Tax, and the fact that off years and especially
special elections tend to favor Republican turnout. This is all without
mentioning that in 2012 Galgiani barely squeaked into office winning by 2,643
votes in an election that wasn’t called until close to Christmas. Wildcards in
this election could be a number of other candidates entering the race like
Heath Flora.
But
once more, all things being equal let’s assume that Galgiani wins, and then
Eggman wins. By mid-2019 we would have yet another special election.
State Assembly District 13.
There is very
little chance that Republican could win in this district but if there was
chance it would be this special election. Although one must recognize that the
makeup of the district is Dems 50%, Reps 25%, and DTS 21%. So since we have no
shortage of qualified Democrats in the area this race would be similar to
people trampling each other at Wal-Mart on Black Friday.
Of course rumors
for this race include those such as Moses Zapien, Carlos Villapudua and Lange
Luntano to name a few. Past candidates have included Jennet Stebbins (who seems
to run for a lot of things with little to no money, and who knows with which
alias) Sol Jobrack, Kevin Lincoln, and K. Jeffery Jafri. At any rate whoever
wins this race would be taking office well into the start of the 2020 United
States Presidential Election putting us into three years of political
campaigning without a break. Of course for all this to happen Galgiani has to
win first.
